Bracket Analysis
This post will briefly go through each weight highlighting interesting matchups and who is sitting in a good spot, and who has a tough road ahead. Upsets will almost surely throw a wrench into the works, but here is how things look before the first whistle blows.
125
The most intriguing potential quarterfinal is between #3 seed Erdman and #6 seed Marlow, the only wrestler to have defeated Erdman this year. Can Erdman get revenge, or does Marlow have his number? Terrance Clandenin is unpredictable in the #5 seed. How good is the former Lehigh wrestler? He didn’t wrestle enough this season for anyone to really know for sure. Defending champ Oster is the #4 seed an has a first round match. He’s missed big chunks of the season and every match is exciting.
133
We will find out quickly how good Livingston is. He has the #8 seed first round in a winnable match, but will his five matches this season have been enough to prepare the former D1 starter? If he wins his first match, he’s in good shape to place, especially if the other seeds hold. #7 Nothern hasn’t had a great season, but he is the top returning placewinner, so #2 Fitzenreider can’t be too excited about facing him in the quarters. Garber is a pretty scary matchup for anyone at this weight. #3 Bjorkstrand can’t take him lightly in the opening round.
141
Any of the top four are good enough to win this bracket. #5 Anderson drew the short straw, getting 2x All-American Matt Kelly right off the bat. There’s a reason Kelly isn’t seeded, however. The most interesting matchup will be between #1 seed Batsukh and Ryan Bridge. I would not go as far as to predict an upset, but this is my pick for the #1 seed most likely to lose in the first round.
149
Having lost just 5-4 earlier this year, one has to think Paulish has a chance to knock off top seed Woszczak in the first round. This weight class has a few spots where it looks like seeds could go down, and perhaps this weight will be like 157 was last year when four seeds lost in round one. Marsh is the #6 seed based on winning New England and his outstanding record, but his only really good wins are against his conference foes Paulish and Sutherland. His first round opponent, Britton, seems to be coming on at the right time. Keep an eye on #5 Dukes and #4 Mauseth, the returning champ. Should be a great quarter.
157
In his 4th trip to the tournament, Cammisa is in a fairly good spot with a winnable first round and a pretty good road back through the consolation round if he falls in the quarters. Returning All-Americans Horwath and Adams go at it in the first round. If Adams wins, it sets up a possible rematch of the consolation finals last year with Miller. Mizer is the #6 seed, but his quarterfinal opponent could be #3 Milks, a wrestler Mizer beat at Wheaton.
165
Three weeks ago, LeClere vs. Banks looked like the probable final. Instead, it could be one of the best semifinal matches this weekend. #4 Morin has a pair of tough top wrestlers in his first two opponents, Alber and Dahlheimer, if Dahlheimer gets past the talented Renaut. If he does, he could match up with top seed Terrell, who Morin beat at last year’s tournament. Baarson has Zempel in the first round, the second year in a row he’s wrestled a Messiah wrestler in the first round. He lost last year at 157, and he’ll be looking to avoid that fate two years in a row.
174
As stated in the 174 preview, seeds may not matter much past the top 3 or 4. A lot of entrants here are good enough to place. That said, it would be a surprise if the semifinals had anyone outside the top four seeds. I would estimate that there are at least 8 guys vying for spots 4-8. It’s hard to pinpoint specific matchups at this weigh since everyone is so close.
184
#8 Ward is one of three in this weight that are one win away from placing, and he seems to be in the best spot. Even if he falls to Burkle in the quarters, he will likely have to defeat the winner of 12-9 Nic Barclay and unseeded Wake, who he has already beaten this year. #3 Moenkedick and #4 Youel are in similar spots, but are both favored to make the semis. Nick Kraus could also benefit from a well-placed bye. Provided #1 Burkle wins in the first round, Kraus could end up facing his Midwest Regional finals opponent Semple with placement on the line. If he turns that 10-5 loss around, he will wrestle on Saturday.
197
#5 Tate could meet #4 Carlson in a rematch of the bout that was mainly responsible for Carlson getting the #4 seed. McNamara could very easily upset #8 Sottile with his excellent top wrestling. That would send Sottile into the consolation round and a likely rematch with Pizarro. Sottile won 3-2 in the first matchup. The winner of the McNamara-Sottile match is in a lot better position than the loser, since the loser’s likely match in the All-American round is 2x All-American Kramer.
285
With 8 returning All-Americans, there’s no easy road, though Sutter is in a pretty good spot. With a bye, he only needs one win, and it will probably be against the winner of freshman Sacco and unseeded Murphy. As stated before, it’s not easy, but it’s better than taking on an All-American to place. Witzel is in a similar situation, potentially only needing to defeat the winner of Broderick and Salyers to make it to Saturday. If Plattner and Helgerson win in round one, they would meet up again for an IIAC finals rematch. Plattner won that round but lost to the Wartburg backup in the dual.