Projected standings based on seeds

Here are the projected standings based purely on seeds. It is a quick and dirty calculation that does not account for unseeded wrestlers or bonus points.

Caveats:
1. Preliminary matches ignored
2. Only seeded wrestlers score
3. No bonus points

Projected Standings:
1. Wartburg – 7 seeded
2. North Central – 4 seeded
3. Wabash – 4 seeded
4. Coast Guard – 4 seeded
5. Johnson & Wales – 4 seeded
6. Baldwin Wallace – 3 seeded
7. Augsburg – 5 seeded

Wartburg is far enough ahead by this calculation that it will be a major upset if another team hoists the championship trophy on Saturday night. All seven of their wrestlers are seeded in the top four. Augsburg has the second highest number of seeds, but none are higher than 5th. That said, they have seven qualifiers and a small bit of wrestling above seed could push them into contention for a trophy. Another team worth mentioning here is Coe. They have just one seeded wrestler but six wrestlers in the tournament. It would not be a shock to see them finish well above their projection. Loras and UW-La Crosse are the only teams not listed above with three seeded wrestlers. No other team has more than two.

Though Wartburg remains a big favorite, any of the other six teams listed could finish in second place. When only eight of 18 wrestlers are seeded, tough matchups can occur early in the tournament. 2015 was the last year no #1 or #2 seeds lost their first match. Unseeded wrestlers place all the time. From 2015-2019, an average of 22.6 All-Americans were unseeded. It makes team score predictions tough when it is expected that over a quarter of the placewinners will enter unseeded.